| 000 | 00392nam a2200133Ia 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 999 |
_c158174 _d158174 |
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| 020 | _a9780691123028 | ||
| 040 | _cCUS | ||
| 082 |
_a320.019 _bTET/E |
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| 100 | _aPhilip E. Tetlock | ||
| 245 | 0 |
_aExpert political judgement: _cTetlock, Philip E. _b how good is it? how can we know?/ |
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| 260 |
_aNew Jersy: _bPrinceton University Press, _c2005. |
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| 300 | _a321p. | ||
| 505 | _a Contents; Acknowledgments; Preface; Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable; Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism; Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs; Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs; Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios; Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back; Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability Methodological Appendix; Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock; Index. | ||
| 650 | _aPsychologie politique | ||
| 650 | _aDécision politique | ||
| 942 | _cWB16 | ||