Expert political judgement: how good is it? how can we know?/
Tetlock, Philip E.
- New Jersy: Princeton University Press, 2005.
- 321p.
Contents; Acknowledgments; Preface;
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable; Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism; Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs; Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs; Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios; Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back; Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability
Methodological Appendix; Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock; Index.