Population and climate change/ Brian C O'Neill, F Landis MacKellar, Wolfgang Lutz

PART I ; 1 Climate Change ; 1. 1 A Climate Primer ; 1.1.1 The greenhouse effect; 1.1.2 The greenhouse gases; 1.1.3 Other factors influencing climate change; 1. 2 Evidence of Climate Change ; 1. 3 Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 1. 4 Projecting Future Climate Change 1.4.1 Projections of global mean temperature and sea level rise: The IPCC scenarios; 1.4.2 Projected changes in other climate-related factors; 1.4.3 Extreme weather events; 1. 5 Impacts on Society and Ecosystems ; 1.5.1 Ecosystems; 1.5.2 Water; 1.5.3 Sea level rise and coastal systems; 1.5.4 Natural catastrophes; 1.5.5 Surprise events; 1. 6 GlobalWarming: A Historical Sketch. 1.6.1 The road ahead: Stabilizing GHG concentrations?1. 7 Conclusion ; 2 The Human Population ; 2. 1 Demographic Trends: A Global Summary ; 2. 2 Fertility Decline in Less Developed Countries ; 2.2.1 Demographic transition; 2.2.2 Fertility decline: Determinants and preconditions; 2. 3 Population Projections ; 2.3.1 Population momentum; 2.3.2 Cumulation of errors and long-term projections. 2. 4 The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Methodology and Assumptions2.4.1 Methodology; 2.4.2 Assumptions on future fertility; 2.4.3 Assumptions on future mortality; 2.4.4 Assumptions on future international migration; 2. 5 The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Results ; 2.5.1 Alternative scenarios; 2.5.2 Probabilistic projections; 2. 6 Impact of Global Climate Change on the Population Outlook ; 2. 7 Conclusion. Population, Economic Development, and Environment3. 1 Population and Economic Development ; 3.1.1 Malthus; 3.1.2 A neoclassical economic growth model; 3.1.3 Population growth in the basic model: A closer look; 3. 2 Population and Environment ; 3.2.1 A neoclassical model of population, economic development, and environment; 3.2.2 Population growth in the basic model including the environment; 3.2.3 Ecological economics; 3. 3 Vicious-Circle Models.