Expert political judgement:
Philip E. Tetlock
Expert political judgement: how good is it? how can we know?/ Tetlock, Philip E. - New Jersy: Princeton University Press, 2005. - 321p.
Contents;
Acknowledgments;
Preface;
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable;
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism;
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios;
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back;
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability
Methodological Appendix;
Technical Appendix:
Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock;
Index.
9780691123028
Psychologie politique
Décision politique
320.019 / TET/E
Expert political judgement: how good is it? how can we know?/ Tetlock, Philip E. - New Jersy: Princeton University Press, 2005. - 321p.
Contents;
Acknowledgments;
Preface;
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable;
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism;
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios;
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back;
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability
Methodological Appendix;
Technical Appendix:
Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock;
Index.
9780691123028
Psychologie politique
Décision politique
320.019 / TET/E